Analysis--forced conscription--See Irrawaddy site--copied and pasted.--2-22-2023

On the flip side, the weakened value of the kyat compared to that of the overvalued official rate pegged prior to the policy changes could also lead to higher domestic prices for traded goods, making it more expensive for the ordinary Myanmar person to purchase products. Lurking in the background is also the low productivity rate of the private sector, rising consumer price inflation, and border trade losses due to armed conflict. The World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor reported in December 2023 that the annual inflation rate in Myanmar is now at 29 percent as the kyat has depreciated by 18 percent against the US dollar; and that firms were reportedly operating at just 56 percent of their capacity in September 2023. Similarly, the Ministry of Commerce of the State Administration Council (SAC, the junta’s official name) recorded a 40-percent border trade decline, in the areas adjacent to both Thailand and China, since the beginning of Operation 1027, a major anti-regime military offensive launched in northern Shan State in October by an alliance of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Overall, the combination of instability from both the security and economic perspectives could potentially render Myanmar unliveable for its people.