Cartoon, Rob Rogers.
No one wins a trade war, plus the U.S.
trillion dollar deficit.
Lessons for Burma—by Kyi May Kaung,
(Ph.D.)
I never thought I’d live to see the day, yet here I
am, wondering about American democracy/Indian democracy and market and
socialist economies, while some of my colleagues and mentors have already
passed on.
My classmate since 5th grade or standard,
Daw Khin Aye Than, with an ABD (All But Dissertation) from Wharton School of
Business, died in 2015. A few years ago,
U Roland Khin, who wanted to phone me to relay news of Jasmine’s passing, also
died himself, from a fall in his garage.
Believe it or not, in 1987, Merrill Lynch[1] came looking for us,
Jasmine and me, because they were keen on opening up a stock market in
Burma. For three weeks, during which we
were paid $700 a week (our Fulbright was $700 per month), we were at the
Merrill Lynch HQ on a very high floor of one of the two World Trade Center
Towers—I don’t remember exactly which one.
I looked out the wide plate glass windows onto the
sparkling waters, and Lady Liberty looked like a small chess piece on my
brother’s chess board. I made a crayon
sketch, but now I can’t find that small piece of paper either.
Jasmine and I used to stand near the office
receptionist’s desk, she in a Burmese longyi, and chat in Burmese. I wore pants suits, because many people get
mugged or attacked on the subways of New York and Philadelphia. Penn police told us always to wear shoes and
clothes we could run in. How to stay
safe. To have a money clip with $20 in
it to throw at muggers and then run in the opposite direction.
People, including university students from overseas,
still get shot on the streets of West Philadelphia. My friend moved out after her fiancé was
robbed two times with an AK 47.
It was high summer, and quite hot.
The N.Y. subways smelled bad, and the tarmac on the
streets was sticky, as if melting.
At lunch time, I went down to the fountain in the
courtyard and ate lunch.
The centerpiece sculpture of the world on its axis[2] is now in the W.T.C.
Museum.
The Sphere immediately after 9/11.
Jasmine said Mrs. Hla Aung told her, “The higher the
floor, the more important the person/business.”
I did not talk of my husband’s business associate, who was in a small
cubby-hole on a lower floor—may be it was one of those rent-by-the-hour. I am told they exist.
As for the high floors, we all know how these very
same towers became death traps on 9/11.
When my other colleague and I visited Saya and Mrs. Findlay in Nov. of
2002, Ma Ma Jane said, “Osama bin Ladin must have been khaung kyain ne te, in the caves of Tora Bora,” and Saya said, “If
I were the Taliban, I’d just lie low and then come back after some years.”
They told me they went to the W.T.C. a week before
9/11 to show friends around.
Life is all random and chance.
*
In 1987, the stock market was at an all-time high, and
a few weeks later would crash altogether.
No one paid any attention to us Burmese students,
though we were obviously selected because we were Fulbright grantees, and from
Burma.
“If they wanted anyone else,” Jasmine said, “they
would have found them.”
Reasonable enough.
Jasmine, with her usual extroverted nature, made
friends with the M.L. librarian and did some research on privatization, her
favored topic.
I talked to the only other intern, an American man,
who was planning for his girlfriend’s visit (I was planning for my husband’s
first visit) and about doing a museum crawl on 5th Avenue. He was at loose ends too, just like us.
I went to the bookstore on Church St.[3] near the small old
cemetery, and bought a book on stock market and Wall Street terms.
One night quite late, my son and his friend D. and I
walked back from Chinatown to Wall St. via Church St. and then to my lodgings
in Murray Hill.[4]
The M.L. employee named Annalisa, supposed to be
“looking after us” wanted to shunt me across the bridge to Brooklyn Heights,
but I said I was afraid of street crime, and needed to cook my own food, and so
we got separate studio apartments with kitchenettes in Murray Hill, which I
found by reading a “relocate” to NY City booklet which I still have.
I asked my 2 first cousins, not siblings themselves,
both working at the UN, about Brooklyn Heights and they shook their heads.
I think A. was
just trying to shunt business towards a friend of hers with rooms to let.
She also asked what I considered to be a racist
comment, “Where did you live in Burma?”
During those three weeks, I went to the Guggenheim,[5] a beautiful snail-shaped
building, and saw the Joan Miro[6] exhibit (A man, first name
pronounced “Hwann”). Also to the
Cloisters[7] which were brought from
France, all that stone, by Rockefeller, and rebuilt in Fort Tyron Park at the
northern tip of Manhatten.
*
For anyone who knows Economics at all, especially if
you were a student of Dr. Ronald E. Findlay,[8] you have to know that the
Theory of Comparative Advantage is the economist’s equivalent of the Holy
Grail.[9]
Trump had a GPA of 2.00 at Wharton as an
undergraduate. He got in because his
father ingratiated himself with the admissions officer[10]. (On the other hand, my friend Jasmine and I
got into the Wharton School of Economics (of the University of Pennsylvania)
and the Univ. of PA, all on our own,
after 20 years of nothing-to-read but the few volumes in the small Institute of
Economics (formerly Ford Foundation) library in Rangoon. And we did not have millionaire fathers
either. At Penn, during our time as
Fulbright scholars, if you got a C or 2.00 in any subject, that was a failing
grade. We had to maintain B+ every
semester.
You will probably know if you follow the news at all
that in 2016 Trump lost the popular vote to Mrs. Clinton, but won through
something called the Electoral Vote.[11] Before Trump won, I did not know it existed.
I have heard of a Burmese-American woman who cried
when Trump won.
I myself was in shock.
I walked to the lunch buffet at Whole Foods, where
they weigh the food, subtract the cost of the container, and you pay by the
pound. I always choose expensive foods
like beef and berries, and avoid rice and bread, which I can’t eat anyway.
At Whole Foods, now owned by Jeff Bezos, who also owns
The Washington Post (he bought 2 adjoined houses next door to the Burmese
Embassy in the Kalorama Section of D.C.)[12], I ran into a woman P.
who I think is married to a Congressman.
She looked just as shell-shocked, and said, “Now I
don’t know what to do.”
Trump started facing mass demonstrations in NY and DC
the morning after the election in Nov 2016.
Women in pink hats with ears blocked his motorcade when he went to CIA
HQ.
There were demonstrations in front of VP Mike Pence’s
house where he was renting near me, before he moved into official quarters
inside the Naval Observatory Grounds.
I use the Naval Observatory clock to check my watch
and clocks when the time changes in the fall and the spring.
At the Washington Nationals baseball game last week
and a wrestling match he was loudly boo-ed and spectators chanted “Lock Him
Up.”[13] During the 2016 campaign
Trump’s followers chanted “Lock her up” about Hilary, and they continue to do
so at all of Trump’s rallies. This was
just a few days ago on Saturday.[14]
People (i.e. Democrats) do not like Trump due to his anti-Muslim
ban, his border wall, “his” ICE,[15] his tariffs, the
ballooning deficit and his obvious dementia/Alzheimers condition.
By the time of the 2016 election (Nov.) I had already
deleted my Facebook account. I went back
to Linked In for a while, and then rejuvenated my Twitter account.
#ImpeachTrump, # ImpeachTMF,
#ImpeachTrumpPenceBarrPompeoMulvaney
have been trending on
Twitter continuously for the last six weeks.
Here are some e.g.s of people’s comments, copied and
pasted—
·
And just like that #Trump will disappear leaving behind a
$ Trillion deficit and rock bottom interest rates with nothing to fight the
slowdown and all the time he will shouting it wasn’t me[16]
·
Replying to
Do we want more public-sector jobs? Is
that a Republican talking point now? Isn't the GOP supposed to be the
small-government, fiscal-responsibility party? We're running trillion-dollar
deficits. This is not okay.
·
Replying to
How are the numbers on supply side
economics holding up after almost 40 years? National debt now 23 Trillion and
annual deficit about 1 Trillion. Are you saying Warren's fiscal record would be
worse than GOP's?
·
Replying to
I'm not blind to a 3 trillion dollar
deficit. Manufacturing in a recession. Coal mines still filing bankruptcy.
Taxpayer money bailing
Replying to
I'm not blind to a 3 trillion dollar
deficit. Manufacturing in a recession. Coal mines still filing bankruptcy.
Taxpayer money bailing out farmers. No infrastructure plan. No health care
plan. Nuclear proliferation. His Violating the Constitution. He's done more
harm than good
33.3K Tweets
Brooklyn
@gjbpb
voting blue in 2020 #resist
trump makes me
... No DMs please.
Ohio, USA
Joined July 2016
·
With only one year left until the 2020
election, Republicans in Washington seem more committed to protecting the
President than protecting our country and the integrity of our elections. #DefendOurDemocracy #ForThePeople
·
Today, the 5th of November, is #ElectionDay. Let your LOUDEST boos be
booming from the ballot box. Grab a friend and GO VOTE!!! #VoteBlue
·
Today there are gubernatorial elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, &
Mississippi, state legislative elections in New Jersey and Virginia, &
hundreds of local races across the country. Their outcomes could give us fairer
district maps and much more. Go vote!
·
Your reminder that the
Administration is suing to eliminate
health care coverage for Americans with pre-existing conditions. Dems, on the
other hand, passed legislation to lower generic drug costs as part of our #ForThePeople agenda. #TuesdayMorning Thoughts
Quote Tweet
Pre-Existing Condition Alert
@we_preexist
· 2h
Many health insurers consider receiving
mental health counseling a pre-existing condition, even though 19.2 million
Americans have received mental health counseling. If the GOP succeeds in
repealing the ACA, their lives are on the line.
·
Trade war continues to take its toll.
Last month, Deere laid off 163 workers in Iowa and Illinois. Now, 120 workers
in Texas lose their jobs at Caterpillar due to tariffs.
I follow mostly Democrat politicians, organizations
and media personalities, such as the comedians, like Trevor Noah, who once did
a Burma spoof wearing a taikpon aingyi
(jacket), Saturday Night Live, and people like Jim Acosta whose press pass the
Trump WH tried to revoke, using a doctored video.
I watch all the Hearings in real time in detail.
Yesterday, there were gubernatorial elections for
state governors, in Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee, traditionally blue
collar conservative states, supposed to be “red” or Republican. But KY has already swung Blue, to Democrat.[17] Now the hash tag #BlueWave is trending.
Here from Wikipedia:
The
terms "national deficit" and "national surplus" usually
refer to the federal government budget balance from
year to year, not the cumulative amount of debt. A deficit year increases the
debt, while a surplus year decreases the debt as more money is received than
spent.
Here from the same Wikipedia article are
the definitions:
The national debt
of the United States is the total debt,
or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal
government of the United States, which is measured as the
face value of the currently outstanding Treasury
securities that have been issued by the Treasury
and other federal government agencies.
The terms
"national deficit" and "national surplus" usually refer to
the federal government budget
balance from year to year, not the cumulative amount of
debt. A deficit year increases the debt, while a surplus year decreases the
debt as more money is received than spent.
There are two components of gross national debt:[1]
- "Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve System, and foreign, state and local governments.
- "Debt held by government accounts or intragovernmental debt" – are non-marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the Social Security Trust Fund. Debt held by government accounts represents the cumulative surpluses, including interest earnings, of various government programs that have been invested in Treasury securities.[18]
The
Social Security Trust Fund is where our social security (pension) deductions
are held. In our working years, if we
are U.S. citizens, our employers deducted Social Security monthly or
fortnightly based on our salaries. These
are paid into the SSTF.
What
that is:
The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and Federal
Disability Insurance Trust Fund (collectively, the Social Security Trust
Fund or Trust Funds) are trust funds that provide for payment of Social Security (Old-Age,
Survivors, and Disability Insurance; OASDI) benefits administered by the United
States Social Security Administration.[19]
When you reach a certain specified age, your
benefits are pro-rated based on the number of years you worked and at which pay
level. Then “points” are calculated.
It will
never be as much as income from work, but it will help.
To return
to the USA’s total national debt, reporters have reported that underneath the
Capital Building is a special office room where Treasury Bills are printed and
sold. Most of the US National Debt is
help by foreign countries.
China's maximum holding of 9.1% or $1.3 trillion of US
debt occurred in 2011, subsequently reduced to 5% in 2018. Japan's maximum
holding of 7% or $1.2 trillion occurred in 2012, subsequently reduced to 4% in
2018.[20]
I once saw a cartoon in which all of
America’s national debt is piled on a carpet owned by China, and one day the
carpet will be pulled out from under us.
China’s President Xi Jinping and his
wife have had 2 State Dinners with President Obama, where Mrs. Michelle Obama
wore a red Alexander McQueen dress. The
color matters. Melania also wore red and
Ivanka tried to sweet talk Xi by having her daughter come in and say Hi in
Mandarin, but the dinner was at their Mar a Lago resort in Florida.
State Dinner, President and Mrs. Obama
with President Xi.
With his 2.00 (a C grade) GPA, it’s not clear whether
Trump knows that tariffs hurt U.S. consumers and U.S. farmers.
No one ever wins a trade war.
Everyone benefits from international trade.
I mean the legitimate kind, not crimes like drugs and
human trafficking or trade in illegal items such as endangered animals like
pangolins or elephant ivory or rhino horns.
About the total amount of national debt, again from
Wiki;
Historically, the US
public debt as a share of gross domestic product
(GDP) has increased during wars and recessions, and subsequently declined. The
ratio of debt to GDP may decrease as a result of a government surplus or due to
growth of GDP and inflation. For example, debt held by the public as a share of
GDP peaked just after World War II (113%
of GDP in 1945), but then fell over the
following 35 years. In recent decades, aging demographics and rising healthcare costs have
led to concern about the long-term sustainability of the federal government's fiscal policies. The aggregate, gross amount that
Treasury can borrow is limited by the United States debt
ceiling.
As of June 2019,
federal debt held by the public was $16.17 trillion
and intragovernmental
holdings were $5.86 trillion, for a total national debt
of $22.03 trillion. At the end of 2018, debt held by the public was approximately
76.4% of GDP, and approximately 29% of the debt held by the public was owned by
foreigners.[8] The United States has the largest external
debt in the world. In 2017, the US debt-to-GDP
ratio was ranked 43rd highest out of 207 countries. The Congressional
Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt
held by the public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028, perhaps higher if
current policies are extended beyond their scheduled expiration date.
In the
agricultural sector, China buys soybeans from the USA, and pork is also
exported to China. Here is a pork farmer
talking about the tariffs.
11-6-2019
In 2018
crops were rotting in the fields due to the reciprocal tariffs instituted by
China.
11-6-2019
Almost all
our clothes and small electrical appliances and other consumer goods are
imported from China.
In Sept. Trump announced he would hold tariffs at 25-30%[21]
The Point: China exempts U.S. pork, soybeans from further tariffs
5,719 views
•Sep 14, 2019
This is
Chinese government TV.
And with
those images, I leave you to decide for yourself whether what exiles like me
write are relevant or not.
Burma is
close to China and is an export-dependent country.
America,
India and China are all world-class industrialized countries.
As a
“footnote”—open Impeachment Hearings for Donald J. Trump are starting next
week.
Trump golf
trips alone have cost taxpayer $100 m.[22]
China says
tariffs must be cut to reach a trade deal.[23]
Chinese
exports down.[24]
Disclaimer:
Obviously, I
am writing and submitting this as I think I have something to contribute. I am told that certain persons close to Daw
Suu did not even know who Bishop Tutu was.
Another discussion was about T-shirts, the discussants did not know why
it was called a “tea shirt.” It’s not a
tea shirt to wear at tea time.
Kentucky’s
Mitch McConnell, whose farm Daw Suu visited, is in the middle of a major
scandal right now. You don’t know when
what you don’t know might hurt you.
I wrote this
for my good friends and Institute of Economics alumni—thank you for the kadaw gifts. All the opinions and mistakes if any are mine
and only I am responsible.
Senator
Mitch McConnell[25]
and Daw Suu in Rangoon.
Sen.
McConnell is currently the Senate Majority Leader. For a very long time, he was known as the
formulator of US-Burma Policy. Support
for the NLD was bipartisan.
***
Kyi May Kaung holds a doctorate in
Political Economy, and an MA in City and Regional Planning from the University
of Pennsylvania.[26] Her dissertation can be read here.[27] She also holds an MA and a BA (Gen. Hons.) in
Economics from Rangoon University.
She worked as a Sr. Research Analyst and
Radio Broadcaster from 1997-2001in Washington, D. C., and with The Burma Fund
as a Sr. Fellow from 2001-2010.
She wrote, compiled and edited A Plan for Democracy and Development for
Burma, commissioned by The Soros Burma Project, in 2008-9. The Plan is in the appendix of her memoir, A Time to Write.[28]
Dr. Kaung’s official website is http://www.kmkaung.com/
She has traveled extensively for Burmese
scholars, had over a dozen art shows internationally, read poetry in Lafayette
Park (near the White House), six wearable-art shows.
Her play Shaman was praised by famous playwright Edward Albee. She won the PA Council on the Arts Award, the
William Carlos Williams Award of the Academy of American Poets, was a Pew
Finalist in Literature twice, and won 2 human rights awards from Northeastern
Illinois Univ. in Chicago.
You can follow her on her blog https://kyimaykaung.blogspot.com/?zx=117ed78bb5efcd2d
Or on Twitter. https://twitter.com/kyikaung?lang=en
She deleted her Facebook account in 2016,
so if you see anything, it’s a fake account and don’t click on it.
*
11-5-2019
[2]
The Sphere is 25 feet (7.6 m) high and cast in 52 bronze
segments.[3] Koenig called it
his "biggest child".[3] It was put together
in Bremen, West Germany and shipped as a whole to Lower
Manhattan.[3]
The artwork was meant to symbolize world peace through world trade, and was placed at the center of a ring of fountains and other decorative touches designed by WTC architect Minoru Yamasaki to mimic the Grand Mosque of Mecca, Masjid al-Haram, in which The Sphere stood at the place of the Kaaba.[4] The structural engineers who took a part on this project were Leslie E. Robertson Associates (LERA), who helped make the globe able to rotate once every 24 hours.[citation needed]
From Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sphere
11-5-2019
The artwork was meant to symbolize world peace through world trade, and was placed at the center of a ring of fountains and other decorative touches designed by WTC architect Minoru Yamasaki to mimic the Grand Mosque of Mecca, Masjid al-Haram, in which The Sphere stood at the place of the Kaaba.[4] The structural engineers who took a part on this project were Leslie E. Robertson Associates (LERA), who helped make the globe able to rotate once every 24 hours.[citation needed]
From Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sphere
11-5-2019
11-5-2019
11-6-2019
[10] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-who-often-boasts-of-his-wharton-degree-says-he-was-admitted-to-the-hardest-school-to-get-into-the-college-official-who-reviewed-his-application-recalls-it-differently/2019/07/08/0a4eb414-977a-11e9-830a-21b9b36b64ad_story.html
11-5-2019
[12]
The Obamas have also bought a house there. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are renting.
I used to go there, because the houses Bezos bought
used to be the Textile Museum, and in my other life, one of several, I make
collector-level opera coats.
[13] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-booed-world-series-lock-him-up-chant-break-out-during-game-5-washington-nationals-stadium-pa/
11-6-2019
11-6-2019
Like Hitler’s Brown Shirts
11-6-2019
[16] I
have edited for grammar and spelling.
[17] https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-kentucky-virginia-democrats-win-republicans-2020-a9187161.html
11-5-2019
[20]
From wiki
11-5-2019
·
"I’m not going to have time to go play golf,” Trump said before his
election. In fact, he has visited golf clubs 224 times since taking office,
including over 3 months in total at Mar-a-Lago. These trips have cost taxpayers
over $100 million"
11-7-2019
11-5-2019
