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IPCC Sea Level Rise Projections
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides the most up-to-date scientific consensus on future sea level rise, based on global observations, model simulations, and emission scenarios.
Key Findings from AR6 Chapter 9
Global mean sea level is projected to rise 0.26 m to 0.95 m (0.85 ft to 3.12 ft) by 2100 relative to 2020, depending on the emissions scenario earth.govearth.gov.
Low emissions scenario (SSP1‑2.6): ~0.26 m by 2100.
High emissions scenario (SSP5‑8.5): ~0.95 m by 2100.
Projections extend to 2150, with higher emissions leading to much greater rises NASA Sea Level Change PortalNASA Sea Level Change Portal+1.
Drivers of rise include:
Thermal expansion of seawater due to warming.
Melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Shrinking of mountain glaciers.
Changes in ocean circulation and land ice dynamics IPCCIPCC+1.
Regional Variability
Projections vary by region due to local ocean dynamics, ice sheet behavior, and land subsidence.
Some areas may experience above‑global‑average rises, while others may see below‑global‑average changes NASA Sea Level Change PortalNASA Sea Level Change Portal.
The IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool (NASA Sea Level Change Portal) allows users to:
View global and regional projections from 2020 to 2150.
Click on any ocean location to see local projections.
See contributions of different processes to sea level rise for that location.
Download data in multiple formats NASA Sea Level Change PortalNASA Sea Level Change Portal+1.
Why It Matters
These projections are critical for:
Coastal planning and infrastructure resilience.
Adaptation strategies such as seawalls, managed retreat, and ecosystem-based protection.
Policy decisions on emissions reduction to limit worst‑case scenarios.
Tip: For the most accurate and interactive access to AR6 sea level projections, use the NASA IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool NASA Sea Level Change PortalNASA Sea Level Change Portal+1.
