Sunday, December 22, 2013

My predictions for 2014

My predictions for 2014:

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will again become more confrontational with the Burmese military regime.

The regime will try and position itself to declare another "victory" in the 2015 elections.

Now most of the foreign governments have got what they wanted, it won't matter much to them.  They have already shown by the trade contracts (UK) that they are banking more on the military regime that on Daw Suu.

One commentator on this page said that asking for the Nargis "constitution" to be re-written may be Daw Suu's "last song".

Th second rung leadership (Generation 88) is already split and played into the regime's plan.  Only Min Ko Naing is left supporting Daw Suu.

Foreign investment did not come in as much as expected.

Why?  Because Burma is still a command economy.

(And please don't pronounce it "common economy"  -- "common economy" is not an economic term.  Command economy means commands from the top try and set economic factors, not economics.)

Burma is still a bureaucracy or rather has many bureaucracies, all wanting a piece of the action and a cut of the pie.

Those profiting by the number of regulations LOVE having a lot of rules, the more rules there are -- the greater the opportunity for "side pocket (tea money) or graft."  Since 1988, the side pocket is so large, it may encompass diamonds and plots of land, apartments as wedding gifts, property in China and elsewhere.  Even in 1988, after the clampdown, a visitor to Rangoon reported army top brass families homes "full of stuff, and good stuff too, like Tiffany vases."   This same emigre reported that luxury cars like Mercedes came into Rangoon port as bribes, only the sender and the recipient knew who sent them.

Can you imagine how large the side pocket is now?

That said, the Burmese bubble is still just a bubble, primed by hot air, hope, speculation and the dream of large gains, but impossible bubbles (like the tulip boom in Holland) will eventually burst or bust, and it will be sooner rather than later.

I do not think foreign governments will go on much longer with the charade.

There is not need to now, they have gotten what they wanted.

It may be the Burmese economy will bust all on its own.

Except for India and China, no one else has much money to spare, and Burma is not the only place to invest.

This is my 2 cents.

Wait and see what happens.

K. M. Kaung -- www.kmkaung.com
http://kyimaykaung.blogspot.com
You will also find most of what I have written since 2002 on line by Googling my full name.